What can Hanoi fans expect from Božidar Bandović?
What can Hanoi fans expect from Božidar Bandović?
Ahead of Božidar Bandović's debut with Hanoi FC, we will use data to analyse Bandović's Chennaiyin side to see what can Hanoi fans expect to see from his team in 2023.
First of all, I would like to wish you and your loved ones an amazing 2023! And to Asian readers, I would also like to wish you a great Lunar New Year!
While I do not follow Vietnamese domestic football very closely, I am always intrigued to read about new foreign players and coaches who arrive at V-League 1 clubs. When Hanoi announced their interim head coach Chun Jae-ho would leave the club after the 2022 season ended, I was interested to follow their process of finding and hiring their new head coach. Since Hanoi are one of the strongest clubs in Vietnam, it was expected that they would find a coach that has the same ambition and vision with the club, which are retaining the league title in 2023 and attempt to make it through the AFC Champions League group stage.
When Božidar Bandović was chosen to lead the team in 2023, I did not know a lot about him even though he had two successful stints with Buriram United. But after doing a bit of research on Bandović, I realised that he had managed Chennaiyin during the 2021/22 Indian Super League season and, coincidentally, Statsbomb also made the data of that exact season open to the public. So I cannot pass up the opportunity to use that data to take a deep dive into how his Chennaiyin side performed during the 2021/22 season and predict what he will bring to the Vietnam’s capital club.
(For technical people, or people who can read Python codes, I have made both of my Jupyter notebooks that I used to create the visualisations for this piece public on my GitHub (link: https://github.com/daryl-g/statsbomb_isl). If you are interested in seeing how bad my code is, I would love to hear your opinions and suggestions on how I can improve my code!)
Identifying the style of play
One of the first questions that many fans will ask when a new manager comes to their club is “which formation will the new manager apply to the team?”, and one way that we can predict the formation(s) that Bandović will bring to Hanoi is by looking at the formations that he used for Chennaiyin during the 2021/22 season. However, the decision of using a specific formation while managing a team can be made based on the type of players that they have, their preferred style of play, and the vision of the board. As such, we will also take a glimpse into the alternative formations that Bandović might also be choosing for Hanoi.
From the 16 matches that he managed Chennaiyin, it is clear that Bandović’s preferred formation during his time in India is a 3-5-2 formation, which lines up with the rumours that he was in the running for the Vietnamese national team’s managerial role. This will be great news for Hanoi fans given that most of their key players are also key players for the national team and they have been playing in a 3-5-2/3-4-2-1 system that Park Hang-seo has been using for the past five years. As such, they will be seeing more of the same from Bandović’s team and the players do not have to spend more time to adapt to a new style of play.
There are also three matches where his Chennaiyin side lined up in a different formation, specifically with a 4-2-3-1 or a 4-1-4-1, which will not be a surprise for Hanoi fans and players either as they spent most of last season playing in a similar system under Chun Jae-ho. In order to fully explore Bandović’s style of play, we will only be looking at his 3-5-2 formation and what he might expect from Hanoi players.
Using an example from Chennaiyin’s match against Goa, it can be seen that the centre-backs’ average position are quite far from each other while both wing-backs can push really high up the pitch. The wide centre-backs will be the main connection for the 3+1 build up, which consists of the centre-backs and central midfielder Ariel Borysiuk (former Queens Park Rangers player), with the attacking players up front.
Meanwhile, the two outside central midfielders can take on an offensive role and move into the half space or down the central area to provide an attacking option for the team. The position of the strikers is very interesting as they dropped deep and stayed quite close to the midfielders rather than staying high up the pitch and acting like focal points for the midfielders and the wing backs.
From the sample pass map, we can predict that Bandović will expect his strikers to work hard on the ball and link up the play rather than only fulfilling their goal-scoring responsibilities. Based on what we have seen from Pham Tuan Hai in the 2022 AFF Cup, Tuan Hai will have an opportunity to thrive in Bandović’s system as he fits the description of the type of striker that Bandović is looking for. At the same time, both wing-backs will also be expected to provide width for the team and should be capable of creating chances from both flanks. With Doan Van Hau already left, however, it will be interesting to see if Bandović chooses to rely on Le Van Xuan and Tran Van Kien to play in those positions, or convert the wingers into wing backs, or find foreign players who can meet his expectations for the wing back role.
Having identified a possible formation that Bandović might use at Hanoi, it is worth looking at the stats from his Chennaiyin side to have a further understanding of what the Montenegrin manager will bring to the capital side.
Under the guidance of Bandović, Chennaiyin were not a goal-friendly side as they are ranked among the bottom half clubs in terms of chances conversion and shots on target percentage. But it is also worth considering that his Chennaiyin side were not the best in the league. In fact, it is clear that there were sides such as Hyderabad, Mumbai City, or Goa who were clearly better than Bandović’s side, which might have led to him adopting a more passive approach.
“If you play offensively and you lose the game, you win nothing. Most important thing is to help improve the players. Results are important, of course. I like to control the game and create chances to score. But let me tell you something, in most of the leagues in the world every team that wins the league concedes fewer goals” - Bandović remarked in an interview with Football United.
With Hanoi being one of the best teams in Vietnam, Bandović won’t have to think about being defensive during most matches as they are likely to be the favourite to win. However, this also comes across as a challenge for the Montenegrin manager since he will have to make changes to his preferred style and come up with a plan to guide his team to victory in matches where they are expected to dominate possession.
While his Chennaiyin side have shown that they can control possession when they had the ball, they tended to be quite passive with their approach as, once again, they are ranked among the bottom half clubs for passes into opposition’s half, into penalty box, and key passes. Bandović’s side are also not ranked very high for crossing stats either, but even though they only made 9.75 crosses per match, their completion rate is above 75%, which highlights their emphasis on creating chances down both flanks, now specifically through crosses.
The players can also rely their individual ability to get the ball into the final third as Bandović gives them the freedom, to an extent, to dictate the team’s attack and create chances on their own. This will play well into the strengths of Nguyen Van Quyet and Pham Thanh Luong as both players are very skilful on the ball and have good vision to create chances from unexpected positions.
One of the most noticeable tactical points from Bandović’s sides (including Chennaiyin and Buriram United) is his pragmatic approach, especially when out of possession. Rather than being active after losing possession and press the opposition aggressively in hope of winning the ball back, Bandović prefers his team to sit back in a mid-block and await the opportunity to regain possession. This is reflected through the fact that Chennaiyin have the second-highest opposition’s passes per defensive action (PPDA) and the second-lowest possession won inside opposition’s half after 16 matches of the 2021/22 season, while also ranked second-highest for clearances per match.
As described by Gian Chansrichawla, a Thai football journalist:
“Bandović’s approach has generally been described as ‘pragmatic’ by most observers, due to his preference for building his teams on a strong defense. His sides are comfortable both on and off the ball and don’t necessarily aim to win the ball back quickly through high pressing. They also typically form a mid-block in defense, even when facing off against some of the continent’s strongest sides in the AFC Champions League, which they execute through intense discipline and high energy levels.”
This, once again, lines up with what most Hanoi and Vietnam fans have seen from the national team in the past few years under Park Hang-seo and it had brought success to the Golden Stars against stronger sides in the World Cup Qualifiers. With Hanoi returning to the AFC Champions League as the league’s champion, we can expect to see a similar style of play being adopted for the continental competition as Bandović attempts to take Hanoi into the knockout rounds of the tournament, something that he had done with Buriram United in 2018.
Diving deeper
As mentioned, adopting a passive defensive approach means that the players will not be chasing after the opposition’s players after losing the ball. Instead, this style relies on the tactical discipline and work rate from the players to regroup into a mid-block and attempt to guide the opposition to areas where they can regain possession. This fits exactly with what Bandović expects from his side when they defend against the opposition’s attacks.
There is clearly less emphasis on winning the ball inside the opposition’s half from Chennaiyin in the 2021/22 season as they usually won back possession inside their own half or inside the middle third. Taking a glimpse of the graph above without paying too much attention to each zone’s percentage also gives us an interesting observation: Bandović’s Chennaiyin preferred to win the ball out wide than down the central area as there are more blue boxes on the left and right flanks than red boxes.
This is to be expected from a 5-3-2 mid-block out of possession as the midfield three and the striker pairing would create numerical advantage centrally and prevent the opposition from attacking through their mid-block. This forced the opposition to pass the ball wide, where the players could easily create numerical superiority to win the ball back.
If the Montenegrin manager chooses to use a similar approach for Hanoi, the players should be expected to work hard off the ball, especially during situations where the ball is moved to either flank. They are also expected to be able to move from one side of the pitch to the other in the shortest time as possible. The reason is a long ball to switch the play from the opposition can open up spaces for a potential attack where the opposition can set up multiple 1v1 situations on the opposite side of the pitch.
But once they have successfully regain possession, it is predicted that Bandović’s team will look to be direct in order to create fast counter-attacks and capitalise on the fact that the opposition are unable to regroup into their defensive shape. Looking at their attempted passes into the final third, it can be seen that Chennaiyin preferred to play long passes from inside their own half into the final third to start attacks. Moreover, they also have the tendency to aim their passes down either flank, especially the wide spaces, for the wing-backs to receive.
The same can be said during Chennaiyin’s build-up phase, although their goalkeeper’s distribution approach can be mixed. While the evidence for Chennaiyin’s direct approach is still possible to see as quite a few of their goalkeeper’s kicks are aimed at the opposition’s half, they have also shown that they could play out from the back with 24% of the goalkeeper’s passes are aimed towards the left side of Chennaiyin’s penalty box. Those passes are presumably for the left-sided centre back, who would then target the left wing back with his short or long passes.
These two graphs highlight the fact that Bandović’s side are a wing-oriented team when they have the ball with most of their attacks coming down either flanks, a fact we have highlighted and discussed in the first section. The new information that we have gathered only solidify the facts that we have known so far.
Inside the final third, the approach that Bandović expects to see can be varied. Along with using crosses to get the ball into the penalty box, his Chennaiyin side also relied on long shots to find goal-scoring opportunities but to little luck. They were also slightly ineffective in front of goal as they only managed to record 2.44 shots on target per match, the second-lowest in the league after 16 matches played and almost one shot lower than the third-lowest team Bengaluru. They also only scored under a goal per match, the lowest scoring rate in the league, which highlighted their ineffectiveness inside the penalty box.
Most of the shots that Chennaiyin players made inside the penalty box were either blocked or off target, also highlighting their need for a good goal-scorer in front of goal. With Hanoi, Bandović will have Tuan Hai, who has proven that he can score for both Hanoi and the Vietnam national team, which will improve the team’s goal-scoring efficiency. However, the Montenegrin manager will have to rely on Lucão, who scored 10 goals after 15 matches on all competitions for the capital side last season, as the main goal source if Bandović does not want to find another foreign striker. As they will be involving in the 2023 Champions League, Hanoi will have one more foreign spot than most teams in the league and it is most likely that Bandović and his team will be on the look for another striker who can share the goal-scoring responsibility with Lucão.
Bandović can also turn to set pieces for goal-scoring opportunities, but his records with Chennaiyin have shown that his side might not be the best team in terms of set pieces, especially from corner situations. From a total of 72 corner situations, only 8 ended up with a shot and none ended up as a goal. Vietnamese players are not known to have the best height, but in Nguyen Thanh Chung and Bui Hoang Viet Anh, Bandović will have two of the tallest centre-backs in the country to utilise in set piece situations like corners.
We can expect to see Thanh Chung and Viet Anh to show up at the far post or on the edge of the 6-yard box quite often as that was what Bandović’s Chennaiyin preferred to do. Lucão can also provide an aerial threat in the box and there is a possibility that the Montenegrin will be looking for a striker who can also be effective during corner situations.
Another solution that we might be seeing from Hanoi is delivering corners to the edge of the penalty box where they can have midfielders like Hung Dung, Van Quyet or Thanh Luong make long shots. It can be a useful strategy to use against stronger sides, especially in the Champions League, but it can also be helpful for Hanoi if they ever find themselves in a tough situation against a domestic side.
The personnel
During his time at Chennaiyin, Bandović had two midfielders who were great on the ball and were tasked to be the playmakers of the team. From the articles that I got to read, most highlighted Polish midfielder Ariel Borysiuk and native midfielder Anirudh Thapa as two key players at the heart of Bandović’s team.
Playing at the central of the midfield three, Borysiuk did not involve in a lot of actions inside the final third as he usually dropped deep to help the team with bringing the ball forward from build-up. He tended to make passes towards both sides of the pitch, which were usually aimed at the wing backs, to help the team advance the ball into the opposition’s half. His vision was also crucial for Chennaiyin’s attack as he could make long passes to switch the play or towards the byline in order to send the wing backs into a good position where they can dribble into the final third without being followed by the opposition’s players.
On the other hand, Thapa took on a more advanced position and, as such, was involved in more actions inside the final third. Looking at his passing pattern, it is possible to notice that he also preferred to pass down either flanks like Borysiuk. Yet, most of his key passes were made close or towards the central area, indicating that he was more efficient centrally than down both flanks.
To me, what Thapa had shown in Bandović’s system reminds me of Hung Dung’s role in Park Hang-seo’s system. Hung Dung is more advanced off the ball to allow Nguyen Hoang Duc or Nguyen Tuan Anh to stay back and link up with the centre-backs while he was also given the freedom to drop deep to help with the build-up phase. He is also effective inside the final third as he can create goal-scoring chances for his teammates with through passes into the box or drifting wide and delivering crosses. He can create chances for himself as his long shots are slightly dangerous and unpredictable at times. I can definitely see Hung Dung playing in a similar role to Thapa in Bandović’s system that he will choose for Hanoi.
It is hard to find who might take on Borysiuk’s role as the deep-lying playmaker as I have not watched enough of Nguyen Hai Long or Truong Van Thai Quy. But it is possible that Dau Van Toan will be asked to play in the central of the midfield three with Hung Dung playing on one side and Hai Long or Thai Quy playing on the other side. Nonetheless, these are only predictions and things will change once we see Bandović’s team stepping out onto the pitch.
As mentioned earlier, we have discussed the fact that Bandović will expect to see his strikers to work hard both on and off the ball. This was definitely true for both Łukasz Gikiewicz (sibling of Augsburg’s keeper Rafał Gikiewicz) and Mirlan Murzaev, two of the striking options that Bandović had at Chennaiyin. From both players’ touch map, both Gikiewicz and Murzaev appeared almost everywhere on the pitch to make passes, dribbles, or help the team defend. But we can see that they both had a preference to drift wide to receive the ball, which is to be expected given we have established that Chennaiyin were a wing-oriented team under Bandović.
Both Tuan Hai and Lucão will be expected to do something similar and while I have not watched Lucão enough to give my opinions, I can definitely see Tuan Hai playing well in this system (I have said this too many times, haven’t I?). He has shown to be hard-working both on and off the ball for the national team and he is effective with his off the ball runs to put himself in a good position to receive long passes from the centre backs. Once again, unless Bandović puts his faith in another foreign striker, I can definitely see Tuan Hai and Lucão nailing the starting positions for themselves in Bandović’s 3-5-2 system.
Conclusion
From all of the information above, we can conclude and expect Bandović to apply a 3-5-2 formation for Hanoi. When the capital side are in possession, they are likely to build-up with a 3+1 block with three centre-backs and one midfielder dropping deep to support the build-up play. Up front, both wing-backs will be crucial for Hanoi as they will provide width both offensively and defensively. They are also likely to be the main chance creator for the team through their crosses from both flanks.
Both strikers will be expected to work hard on the ball as they will be asked to drop deep to link up the play and providing the goals for the team. When one of the strikers drops deep, one of the central midfielders will rotate position with him to provide another attacking option who can make runs into the box and be at the end of crosses.
Out of possession, Hanoi are likely to defend in a 5-3-2 mid-to-low block with the emphasis of luring the opposition wide, where they can regain possession using numerical superiority. Throughout his time with Buriram and Chennaiyin, Bandović did not stray away from his preferred style, which leads me to believe that Hanoi will be less active off the ball than expected. There might be occasions where they will press the opposition, but for most matches, and especially during their Champions League campaign, the players will have to make the most of their discipline and hard work to create a well-organised mid-block.
With these conclusions, it does not come as a surprise when there were rumours linking Bandović to the will-be-vacant Vietnam national team post. There are similarities in the Montenegrin’s style of play to what Park Hang-seo have shown and if Bandović was chosen, the national team would not see a significant change in their style. However, taking over Hanoi is also the next best thing for him as most of Hanoi players also play a huge role in how the national team have and are currently playing (at the time of writing), which will allow Bandović to maintain his preferred style of play with the capital side. Time will tell if this appointment is the correct decision or not, but from what we have seen through his time with Chennaiyin, ignoring the underwhelming stats, Hanoi fans can expect a positive time with the Montenegrin manager at the helm.
References
[1]: https://www.indiansuperleague.com/features/after-success-in-thailand-chennaiyin-fc-coach-bozidar-bandovic-eyes-glory-in-hero-isl
[2]: https://nutmegassist.com/bozidar-bandovic-chennaiyinfc-manager/